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BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
This letter comes to you as part of Berkshire’s annual report. As a public company, we
are required to periodically tell you many specific facts and figures.
“Report,” however, implies a greater responsibility. In addition to the mandated data, we
believe we owe you additional commentary about what you own and how we think. Our goal is
to communicate with you in a manner that we would wish you to use if our positions were
reversed – that is, if you were Berkshire’s CEO while I and my family were passive investors,
trusting you with our savings.
This approach leads us to an annual recitation of both good and bad developments at the
many businesses you indirectly own through your Berkshire shares. When discussing problems
at specific subsidiaries, we do, however, try to follow the advice Tom Murphy gave to me 60
years ago: “praise by name, criticize by category.”
Mistakes – Yes, We Make Them at Berkshire
Sometimes I’ve made mistakes in assessing the future economics of a business I’ve
purchased for Berkshire – each a case of capital allocation gone wrong. That happens with both
judgments about marketable equities – we view these as partial ownership of businesses – and
the 100% acquisitions of companies.
At other times, I’ve made mistakes when assessing the abilities or fidelity of the
managers Berkshire is hiring. The fidelity disappointments can hurt beyond their financial
impact, a pain that can approach that of a failed marriage.
A decent batting average in personnel decisions is all that can be hoped for. The cardinal
sin is delaying the correction of mistakes or what Charlie Munger called “thumb-sucking.”
Problems, he would tell me, cannot be wished away. They require action, however
uncomfortable that may be.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
During the 2019-23 period, I have used the words “mistake” or “error” 16 times in my
letters to you. Many other huge companies have never used either word over that span. Amazon,
I should acknowledge, made some brutally candid observations in its 2021 letter. Elsewhere, it
has generally been happy talk and pictures.
I have also been a director of large public companies at which “mistake” or “wrong” were
forbidden words at board meetings or analyst calls. That taboo, implying managerial perfection,
always made me nervous (though, at times, there could be legal issues that make limited
discussion advisable. We live in a very litigious society.)
* * * * * * * * * * * *
At 94, it won’t be long before Greg Abel replaces me as CEO and will be writing the
annual letters. Greg shares the Berkshire creed that a “report” is what a Berkshire CEO annually
owes to owners. And he also understands that if you start fooling your shareholders, you will
soon believe your own baloney and be fooling yourself as well.
Pete Liegl – One of a Kind
Let me pause to tell you the remarkable story of Pete Liegl, a man unknown to most
Berkshire shareholders but one who contributed many billions to their aggregate wealth. Pete
died in November, still working at 80.
I first heard of Forest River – the Indiana company Pete founded and managed – on
June 21, 2005. On that day I received a letter from an intermediary detailing relevant data about
the company, a recreational vehicle (“RV”) manufacturer. The writer said that Pete, the 100%
owner of Forest River, specifically wanted to sell to Berkshire. He also told me the price that Pete
expected to receive. I liked this no-nonsense approach.
I did some checking with RV dealers, liked what I learned and arranged a June 28th
meeting in Omaha. Pete brought along his wife, Sharon, and daughter, Lisa. When we met, Pete
assured me that he wanted to keep running the business but would feel more comfortable if he
could assure financial security for his family.
Pete next mentioned that he owned some real estate that was leased to Forest River and
had not been covered in the June 21 letter. Within a few minutes, we arrived at a price for those
assets as I expressed no need for appraisal by Berkshire but would simply accept his valuation.
Then we arrived at the other point that needed clarity. I asked Pete what his compensation
should be, adding that whatever he said, I would accept. (This, I should add, is not an approach I
recommend for general use.)
Pete paused as his wife, daughter and I leaned forward. Then he surprised us: “Well, I
looked at Berkshire’s proxy statement and I wouldn’t want to make more than my boss, so pay
me $100,000 per year.” After I picked myself off the floor, Pete added: “But we will earn X (he
named a number) this year, and I would like an annual bonus of 10% of any earnings above what
the company is now delivering.” I replied: “OK Pete, but if Forest River makes any significant
acquisitions we will make an appropriate adjustment for the additional capital thus employed.” I
didn’t define “appropriate” or “significant,” but those vague terms never caused a problem.
The four of us then went to dinner at Omaha’s Happy Hollow Club and lived happily
ever after. During the next 19 years, Pete shot the lights out. No competitor came close to his
performance.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
Every company doesn’t have an easy-to-understand business and there are very few
owners or managers like Pete. And, of course, I expect to make my share of mistakes about the
businesses Berkshire buys and sometimes err in evaluating the sort of person with whom I’m
dealing.
But I’ve also had many pleasant surprises in both the potential of the business as well as
the ability and fidelity of the manager. And our experience is that a single winning decision can
make a breathtaking difference over time. (Think GEICO as a business decision, Ajit Jain as a
managerial decision and my luck in finding Charlie Munger as a one-of-a-kind partner, personal
advisor and steadfast friend.) Mistakes fade away; winners can forever blossom.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
One further point in our CEO selections: I never look at where a candidate has gone to
school. Never!
Of course, there are great managers who attended the most famous schools. But there are
plenty such as Pete who may have benefitted by attending a less prestigious institution or even
by not bothering to finish school. Look at my friend, Bill Gates, who decided that it was far more
important to get underway in an exploding industry that would change the world than it was to
stick around for a parchment that he could hang on the wall. (Read his new book, Source Code.)
Not long ago, I met – by phone – Jessica Toonkel, whose step-grandfather, Ben Rosner,
long ago ran a business for Charlie and me. Ben was a retailing genius and, in preparing for this
report, I checked with Jessica to confirm Ben’s schooling, which I remembered as limited.
Jessica’s reply: “Ben never went past 6th grade.”
I was lucky enough to get an education at three fine universities. And I avidly believe in
lifelong learning. I’ve observed, however, that a very large portion of business talent is innate
with nature swamping nurture.
Pete Liegl was a natural.
Last Year’s Performance
In 2024, Berkshire did better than I expected though 53% of our 189 operating
businesses reported a decline in earnings. We were aided by a predictable large gain in
investment income as Treasury Bill yields improved and we substantially increased our holdings
of these highly-liquid short-term securities.
Our insurance business also delivered a major increase in earnings, led by the
performance of GEICO. In five years, Todd Combs has reshaped GEICO in a major way,
increasing efficiency and bringing underwriting practices up to date. GEICO was a long-held
gem that needed major repolishing, and Todd has worked tirelessly in getting the job done.
Though not yet complete, the 2024 improvement was spectacular.
In general, property-casualty (“P/C”) insurance pricing strengthened during 2024,
reflecting a major increase in damage from convective storms. Climate change may have been
announcing its arrival. However, no “monster” event occurred during 2024. Someday, any day, a
truly staggering insurance loss will occur – and there is no guarantee that there will be only one
per annum.
The P/C business is so central to Berkshire that it warrants a further discussion that
appears later in this letter.
Berkshire’s railroad and utility operations, our two largest businesses outside of
insurance, improved their aggregate earnings. Both, however, have much left to accomplish.
Late in the year we increased our ownership of the utility operation from about 92% to
100% at a cost of roughly $3.9 billion, of which $2.9 billion was paid in cash with a balance in
Berkshire “B” shares.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
All told, we recorded operating earnings of $47.4 billion in 2024. We regularly – endlessly,
some readers may groan – emphasize this measure rather than the GAAP-mandated earnings that
are reported on page K-68.
Our measure excludes capital gains or losses on the stocks and bonds we own, whether
realized or unrealized. Over time, we think it highly likely that gains will prevail – why else
would we buy these securities? – though the year-by-year numbers will swing wildly and
unpredictably. Our horizon for such commitments is almost always far longer than a single year.
In many, our thinking involves decades. These long-termers are the purchases that sometimes
make the cash register ring like church bells.
Here’s a breakdown of the 2023-24 earnings as we see them. All calculations are after
depreciation, amortization and income tax. EBITDA, a flawed favorite of Wall Street, is not for
us.
(in $ millions)
2024
2023
| Insurance-underwriting | $9,020 | $5,428 |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance-investment income | 13,670 | 9,567 |
| BNSF | 5,031 | 5,087 |
| Berkshire Hathaway Energy | 3,730 | 2,331 |
| Other controlled businesses | 13,072 | 13,362 |
| Non-controlled businesses* | 1,519 | 1,750 |
| Other** | 1,395 | (175) |
| Operating earnings | $47,437 | $37,350 |
* Includes certain businesses in which Berkshire had between a 20% and 50% ownership
such as Kraft Heinz, Occidental Petroleum and Berkadia.
** Includes foreign currency exchange gains of approximately $1.1 billion in 2024 and
approximately $211 million in 2023 produced by our usage of non-U.S. dollar-denominated
debt.
Surprise, Surprise! An Important American Record is Smashed
Sixty years ago, present management took control of Berkshire. That move was a
mistake – my mistake – and one that plagued us for two decades. Charlie, I should emphasize,
spotted my obvious error immediately: Though the price I paid for Berkshire looked cheap, its
business – a large northern textile operation – was headed for extinction.
The U.S. Treasury, of all places, had already received silent warnings of Berkshire’s
destiny. In 1965, the company did not pay a dime of income tax, an embarrassment that had
generally prevailed at the company for a decade. That sort of economic behavior may be
understandable for glamorous startups, but it’s a blinking yellow light when it happens at a
venerable pillar of American industry. Berkshire was headed for the ash can.
Fast forward 60 years and imagine the surprise at the Treasury when that same
company – still operating under the name of Berkshire Hathaway – paid far more in corporate
income tax than the U.S. government had ever received from any company – even the American
tech titans that commanded market values in the trillions.
To be precise, Berkshire last year made four payments to the IRS that totaled $26.8
billion. That’s about 5% of what all of corporate America paid. (In addition, we paid sizable
amounts for income taxes to foreign governments and to 44 states.)
Note one crucial factor allowing this record-shattering payment: Berkshire shareholders
during the same 1965-2024 period received only one cash dividend. On January 3, 1967, we
disbursed our sole payment – $101,755 or 10¢ per A share. (I can’t remember why I suggested
this action to Berkshire’s board of directors. Now it seems like a bad dream.)
For sixty years, Berkshire shareholders endorsed continuous reinvestment and that
enabled the company to build its taxable income. Cash income-tax payments to the U.S.
Treasury, miniscule in the first decade, now aggregate more than $101 billion . . . and counting.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
Huge numbers can be hard to visualize. Let me recast the $26.8 billion that we paid last
year.
If Berkshire had sent the Treasury a $1 million check every 20 minutes throughout all of
2024 – visualize 366 days and nights because 2024 was a leap year – we still would have owed
the federal government a significant sum at yearend. Indeed, it would be well into January before
the Treasury would tell us that we could take a short breather, get some sleep, and prepare for our
2025 tax payments.
Where Your Money Is
Berkshire’s equity activity is ambidextrous. In one hand we own control of many
businesses, holding at least 80% of the investee’s shares. Generally, we own 100%.
These 189 subsidiaries have similarities to marketable common stocks but are far from
identical. The collection is worth many hundreds of billions and includes a few rare gems,
many good-but-far-from-fabulous businesses and some laggards that have been disappointments.
We own nothing that is a major drag, but we have a number that I should not have purchased.
In the other hand, we own a small percentage of a dozen or so very large and highly
profitable businesses with household names such as Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola and
Moody’s. Many of these companies earn very high returns on the net tangible equity required for
their operations. At yearend, our partial-ownership holdings were valued at $272 billion.
Understandably, really outstanding businesses are very seldom offered in their entirety, but small
fractions of these gems can be purchased Monday through Friday on Wall Street and, very
occasionally, they sell at bargain prices.
We are impartial in our choice of equity vehicles, investing in either variety based upon
where we can best deploy your (and my family’s) savings. Often, nothing looks compelling; very
infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities. Greg has vividly shown his ability to
act at such times as did Charlie.
With marketable equities, it is easier to change course when I make a mistake.
Berkshire’s present size, it should be underscored, diminishes this valuable option. We can’t
come and go on a dime. Sometimes a year or more is required to establish or divest an
investment. Additionally, with ownership of minority positions we can’t change management if
that action is needed or control what is done with capital flows if we are unhappy with the
decisions being made.
With controlled companies, we can dictate these decisions, but we have far less flexibility
in the disposition of mistakes. In reality, Berkshire almost never sells controlled businesses
unless we face what we believe to be unending problems. An offset is that some business owners
seek out Berkshire because of our steadfast behavior. Occasionally, that can be a decided plus for
us.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at
Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities. That preference won’t change.
While our ownership in marketable equities moved downward last year from $354 billion to
$272 billion, the value of our non-quoted controlled equities increased somewhat and remains far
greater than the value of the marketable portfolio.
Berkshire shareholders can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority
of their money in equities – mostly American equities although many of these will have
international operations of significance. Berkshire will never prefer ownership of cash-equivalent
assets over the ownership of good businesses, whether controlled or only partially owned.
Paper money can see its value evaporate if fiscal folly prevails. In some countries, this
reckless practice has become habitual, and, in our country’s short history, the U.S. has come
close to the edge. Fixed-coupon bonds provide no protection against runaway currency.
Businesses, as well as individuals with desired talents, however, will usually find a way
to cope with monetary instability as long as their goods or services are desired by the country’s
citizenry. So, too, with personal skills. Lacking such assets as athletic excellence, a wonderful
voice, medical or legal skills or, for that matter, any special talents, I have had to rely on equities
throughout my life. In effect, I have depended on the success of American businesses and I will
continue to do so.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
One way or another, the sensible – better yet imaginative – deployment of savings by
citizens is required to propel an ever-growing societal output of desired goods and services. This
system is called capitalism. It has its faults and abuses – in certain respects more egregious now
than ever – but it also can work wonders unmatched by other economic systems.
America is Exhibit A. Our country’s progress over its mere 235 years of existence could
not have been imagined by even the most optimistic colonists in 1789, when the Constitution
was adopted and the country’s energies were unleashed.
True, our country in its infancy sometimes borrowed abroad to supplement our own
savings. But, concurrently, we needed many Americans to consistently save and then needed
those savers or other Americans to wisely deploy the capital thus made available. If America had
consumed all that it produced, the country would have been spinning its wheels.
The American process has not always been pretty – our country has forever had many
scoundrels and promoters who seek to take advantage of those who mistakenly trust them with
their savings. But even with such malfeasance – which remains in full force today – and also
much deployment of capital that eventually floundered because of brutal competition or
disruptive innovation, the savings of Americans has delivered a quantity and quality of output
beyond the dreams of any colonist.
From a base of only four million people – and despite a brutal internal war early on,
pitting one American against another – America changed the world in the blink of a celestial eye.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
In a very minor way, Berkshire shareholders have participated in the American miracle by
foregoing dividends, thereby electing to reinvest rather than consume. Originally, this
reinvestment was tiny, almost meaningless, but over time, it mushroomed, reflecting the mixture
of a sustained culture of savings, combined with the magic of long-term compounding.
Berkshire’s activities now impact all corners of our country. And we are not finished.
Companies die for many reasons but, unlike the fate of humans, old age itself is not lethal.
Berkshire today is far more youthful than it was in 1965.
However, as Charlie and I have always acknowledged, Berkshire would not have
achieved its results in any locale except America whereas America would have been every bit the
success it has been if Berkshire had never existed.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
So thank you, Uncle Sam. Someday your nieces and nephews at Berkshire hope to send
you even larger payments than we did in 2024. Spend it wisely. Take care of the many who, for
no fault of their own, get the short straws in life. They deserve better. And never forget that we
need you to maintain a stable currency and that result requires both wisdom and vigilance on
your part.
Property-Casualty Insurance
P/C insurance continues to be Berkshire’s core business. The industry follows a financial
model that is rare – very rare – among giant businesses.
Customarily, companies incur costs for labor, materials, inventories, plant and equipment,
etc. before – or concurrently with – the sale of their products or services. Consequently, their
CEOs have a good fix on knowing the cost of their product before they sell it. If the selling price
is less than its cost, managers soon learn they have a problem. Hemorrhaging cash is hard to
ignore.
When writing P/C insurance, we receive payment upfront and much later learn what our
product has cost us – sometimes a moment of truth that is delayed as much as 30 or more years.
(We are still making substantial payments on asbestos exposures that occurred 50 or more years
ago.)
This mode of operations has the desirable effect of giving P/C insurers cash before
they incur most expenses but carries with it the risk that the company can be losing
money – sometimes mountains of money – before the CEO and directors realize what is
happening.
Certain lines of insurance minimize this mismatch, such as crop insurance or hail damage
in which losses are quickly reported, evaluated and paid. Other lines, however, can lead to
executive and shareholder bliss as the company is going broke. Think coverages such as medical
malpractice or product liability. In “long-tail” lines, a P/C insurer may report large but fictitious
profits to its owners and regulators for many years – even decades. The accounting can be
particularly dangerous if the CEO is an optimist or a crook. These possibilities are not fanciful:
History reveals a large number of each species.
In recent decades, this “money-up-front, loss-payments-later” model has allowed
Berkshire to invest large sums (“float”) while generally delivering what we believe to be a small
underwriting profit. We make estimates for “surprises” and, so far, these estimates have been
sufficient.
We are not deterred by the dramatic and growing loss payments sustained by our
activities. (As I write this, think wildfires.) It’s our job to price to absorb these and unemotionally
take our lumps when surprises develop. It’s also our job to contest “runaway” verdicts, spurious
litigation and outright fraudulent behavior.
Under Ajit, our insurance operation has blossomed from an obscure Omaha-based
company into a world leader, renowned for both its taste for risk and its Gibraltar-like financial
strength. Moreover, Greg, our directors and I all have a very large investment in Berkshire in
relation to any compensation we receive. We do not use options or other one-sided forms of
compensation; if you lose money, so do we. This approach encourages caution but does not
ensure foresight.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
P/C insurance growth is dependent on increased economic risk. No risk – no need for
insurance.
Think back only 135 years when the world had no autos, trucks or airplanes. Now there
are 300 million vehicles in the U.S. alone, a massive fleet causing huge damage daily. Property
damage arising from hurricanes, tornadoes and wildfires is massive, growing and increasingly
unpredictable in their patterns and eventual costs.
It would be foolish – make that madness – to write ten-year policies for these coverages,
but we believe one-year assumption of such risks is generally manageable. If we change our
minds, we will change the contracts we offer. During my lifetime, auto insurers have generally
abandoned one-year policies and switched to the six-month variety. This change reduced float
but allowed more intelligent underwriting.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
No private insurer has the willingness to take on the amount of risk that Berkshire can
provide. At times, this advantage can be important. But we also need to shrink when prices are
inadequate. We must never write inadequately-priced policies in order to stay in the game. That
policy is corporate suicide.
Properly pricing P/C insurance is part art, part science and is definitely not a business for
optimists. Mike Goldberg, the Berkshire executive who recruited Ajit, said it best: “We want our
underwriters to daily come to work nervous, but not paralyzed.”
* * * * * * * * * * * *
All things considered, we like the P/C insurance business. Berkshire can financially and
psychologically handle extreme losses without blinking. We are also not dependent on reinsurers
and that gives us a material and enduring cost advantage. Finally, we have outstanding managers
(no optimists) and are particularly well-situated to utilize the substantial sums P/C insurance
delivers for investment.
Over the past two decades, our insurance business has generated $32 billion of after-tax
profits from underwriting, about 3.3 cents per dollar of sales after income tax. Meanwhile, our
float has grown from $46 billion to $171 billion. The float is likely to grow a bit over time and,
with intelligent underwriting (and some luck), has a reasonable prospect of being costless.
Berkshire Increases its Japanese Investments
A small but important exception to our U.S.-based focus is our growing investment in
Japan.
It’s been almost six years since Berkshire began purchasing shares in five Japanese
companies that very successfully operate in a manner somewhat similar to Berkshire itself. The
five are (alphabetically) ITOCHU, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo. Each of these
large enterprises, in turn, owns interests in a vast array of businesses, many based in Japan but
others that operate throughout the world.
Berkshire made its first purchases involving the five in July 2019. We simply looked at
their financial records and were amazed at the low prices of their stocks. As the years have
passed, our admiration for these companies has consistently grown. Greg has met many times
with them, and I regularly follow their progress. Both of us like their capital deployment, their
managements and their attitude in respect to their investors.
Each of the five companies increase dividends when appropriate, they repurchase their
shares when it is sensible to do so, and their top managers are far less aggressive in their
compensation programs than their U.S. counterparts.
Our holdings of the five are for the very long term, and we are committed to supporting
their boards of directors. From the start, we also agreed to keep Berkshire’s holdings below 10%
of each company’s shares. But, as we approached this limit, the five companies agreed to
moderately relax the ceiling. Over time, you will likely see Berkshire’s ownership of all five
increase somewhat.
At yearend, Berkshire’s aggregate cost (in dollars) was $13.8 billion and the market value
of our holdings totaled $23.5 billion.
Meanwhile, Berkshire has consistently – but not pursuant to any formula – increased its
yen-denominated borrowings. All are at fixed rates, no “floaters.” Greg and I have no view on
future foreign exchange rates and therefore seek a position approximating currency-neutrality.
We are required, however, under GAAP rules to regularly recognize in our earnings a calculation
of any gains or losses in the yen we have borrowed and, at yearend, had included $2.3 billion of
after-tax gains due to dollar strength of which $850 million occurred in 2024.
I expect that Greg and his eventual successors will be holding this Japanese position for
many decades and that Berkshire will find other ways to work productively with the five
companies in the future.
We like the current math of our yen-balanced strategy as well. As I write this, the annual
dividend income expected from the Japanese investments in 2025 will total about $812 million
and the interest cost of our yen-denominated debt will be about $135 million.
The Annual Gathering in Omaha
I hope you will join us in Omaha on May 3rd. We are following a somewhat changed
schedule this year, but the basics remain the same. Our goal is that you get many of your
questions answered, that you connect with friends, and that you leave with a good impression of
Omaha. The city looks forward to your visits.
We will have much the same group of volunteers to offer you a wide variety of Berkshire
products that will lighten your wallet and brighten your day. As usual, we will be open on Friday
from noon until 5 p.m. with lovable Squishmallows, underwear from Fruit of the Loom, Brooks
running shoes and a host of other items to tempt you.
Again, we will have only one book for sale. Last year we featured Poor Charlie’s
Almanack and sold out – 5,000 copies disappeared before the close of business on Saturday.
This year we will offer 60 Years of Berkshire Hathaway. In 2015, I asked Carrie Sova,
who among her many duties managed much of the activity at the annual meeting, to try her hand
at putting together a light-hearted history of Berkshire. I gave her full reign to use her
imagination, and she quickly produced a book that blew me away with its ingenuity, contents and
design.
Subsequently, Carrie left Berkshire to raise a family and now has three children. But each
summer, the Berkshire office force gets together to watch the Omaha Storm Chasers play
baseball against a Triple A opponent. I ask a few alums to join us, and Carrie usually comes with
her family. At this year’s event, I brazenly asked her if she would do a 60th Anniversary issue,
featuring Charlie’s photos, quotes and stories that have seldom been made public.
Even with three young children to manage, Carrie immediately said “yes.” Consequently,
we will have 5,000 copies of the new book available for sale on Friday afternoon and from
7 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Saturday.
Carrie refused any payment for her extensive work on the new “Charlie” edition. I
suggested she and I co-sign 20 copies to be given to any shareholder contributing $5,000 to the
Stephen Center that serves homeless adults and children in South Omaha. The Kizer family,
beginning with Bill Kizer, Sr., my long-time friend and Carrie’s grandfather, have for decades
been assisting this worthy institution. Whatever is raised through the sale of the 20 autographed
books, I will match.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
Becky Quick will cover our somewhat re-engineered gathering on Saturday. Becky
knows Berkshire like a book and always arranges interesting interviews with managers,
investors, shareholders and an occasional celebrity. She and her CNBC crew do a great job of
both transmitting our meetings worldwide and archiving much Berkshire-related material. Give
our director, Steve Burke, credit for the archive idea.
We will not have a movie this year but rather will convene a bit earlier at 8 a.m. I will
make a few introductory remarks, and we will promptly get to the Q&A, alternating questions
between Becky and the audience.
Greg and Ajit will join me in answering questions and we will take a half-hour break at
10:30 a.m. When we reconvene at 11:00 a.m., only Greg will join me on stage. This year we will
disband at 1:00 p.m. but stay open for shopping in the exhibit area until 4:00 p.m.
You can find the full details regarding weekend activities on page 16. Note particularly
the always-popular Brooks run on Sunday morning. (I will be sleeping.)
* * * * * * * * * * * *
My wise and good-looking sister, Bertie, of whom I wrote last year, will be attending the
meeting along with two of her daughters, both good-looking as well. Observers all agree that the
genes producing this dazzling result flow down only the female side of the family. (Sob.)
Bertie is now 91 and we talk regularly on Sundays using old-fashion telephones for
communications. We cover the joys of old age and discuss such exciting topics as the relative
merits of our canes. In my case, the utility is limited to the avoidance of falling flat on my face.
But Bertie regularly one-ups me by asserting that she enjoys an additional benefit: When
a woman uses a cane, she tells me, men quit “hitting” on her. Bertie’s explanation is that the male
ego is such that little old ladies with canes simply aren’t an appropriate target. Presently, I have
no data to counter her assertion.
But I have suspicions. At the meeting I can’t see much from the stage, and I would
appreciate it if attendees would keep an eye on Bertie. Let me know if the cane is really doing its
job. My bet is that she will be surrounded by males. For those of a certain age, the scene will
bring back memories of Scarlett O’Hara and her horde of male admirers in Gone with the Wind.
* * * * * * * * * * * *
The Berkshire directors and I immensely enjoy having you come to Omaha, and I predict
that you will have a good time and likely make some new friends.
February 22, 2025 Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board
Berkshire’s Performance vs. the S&P 500
Annual Percentage Change
in Per-Share Market Value of Berkshire
in S&P 500 with Dividends Included
1965 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
49.5%
10.0%
1966 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(3.4)
(11.7)
1967 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13.3
30.9
1968 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
77.8
11.0
1969 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19.4
(8.4)
1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(4.6)
3.9
1971 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
80.5
14.6
1972 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8.1
18.9
1973 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(2.5)
(14.8)
1974 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(48.7)
(26.4)
1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5
37.2
1976 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
129.3
23.6
1977 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
46.8
(7.4)
1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.5
6.4
1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
102.5
18.2
1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
32.8
32.3
1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
31.8
(5.0)
1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
38.4
21.4
1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
69.0
22.4
1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(2.7)
6.1
1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
93.7
31.6
1986 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.2
18.6
1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.6
5.1
1988 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
59.3
16.6
1989 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
84.6
31.7
1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(23.1)
(3.1)
1991 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
35.6
30.5
1992 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
29.8
7.6
1993 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
38.9
10.1
1994 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.0
1.3
Note: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31.
Berkshire’s Performance vs. the S&P 500
Annual Percentage Change
in Per-Share Market Value of Berkshire
in S&P 500 with Dividends Included
1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
57.4%
37.6%
1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.2
23.0
1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
34.9
33.4
1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
52.2
28.6
1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(19.9)
21.0
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26.6
(9.1)
2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.5
(11.9)
2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(3.8)
(22.1)
2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15.8
28.7
2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.3
10.9
2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.8
4.9
2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
24.1
15.8
2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
28.7
5.5
2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(31.8)
(37.0)
2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.7
26.5
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21.4
15.1
2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(4.7)
2.1
2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16.8
16.0
2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
32.7
32.4
2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
27.0
13.7
2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(12.5)
1.4
2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23.4
12.0
2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
21.9
21.8
2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.8
(4.4)
2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11.0
31.5
2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.4
18.4
2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
29.6
28.7
2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.0
(18.1)
2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15.8
26.3
2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.5
25.0
Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19.9%
10.4%
Overall Gain – 1964-2024 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5,502,284%
39,054%
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的各位股东:
这封信是伯克希尔年度报告的一部分。作为一家上市公司,我们有义务定期向您披露许多具体的事实和数据。
然而,"报告"一词意味着更大的责任。除了法定数据之外,我们认为还应该向您提供关于您所持有的是什么以及我们如何思考的额外评论。我们的目标是与您进行沟通的方式,正是如果我们互换位置——即如果您是伯克希尔的首席执行官,而我和我家人是被动的投资者,将我们的储蓄托付给您——我们所希望您采用的方式。
这种方法促使我们每年都会讲述您通过持有伯克希尔股票间接拥有的众多企业的好消息和坏消息。在讨论特定子公司的问题时,我确实会尽量遵循汤姆·墨菲60年前给我的建议:"点名表扬,分类批评。"
错误——是的,我们在伯克希尔也会犯错误
有时,我在评估为伯克希尔收购的企业的未来经济前景时犯过错误——每一次都是资本配置失误。无论是对于上市股票——我们将其视为企业的部分所有权——还是对公司的100%收购,这种情况都会发生。
在其他时候,我在评估伯克希尔所聘用的管理者的能力或忠诚度时也犯过错误。忠诚方面的失望造成的伤害可能超出其财务影响,这种痛苦可能接近于婚姻破裂。
在人事决策中,只能期望有不错的打击率。致命的罪过是延迟纠正错误,或者用查理·芒格的话来说就是"吮拇指"。他会告诉我,问题不可能靠许愿消失。它们需要采取行动,无论这可能多么令人不适。
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
在2019-23年期间,我在致您的信中16次使用了"错误"或"失误"这个词。许多其他大公司在这一时期从未使用过这两个词中的任何一个。亚马逊,我应该承认,在其2021年的信中做出了一些极其坦诚的表述。在其他地方,通常都是空洞的漂亮话和图片。
我也曾担任一些大型上市公司的董事,在这些公司的董事会会议或分析师电话会议上,"错误"或"错误"是禁用的词汇。这种禁忌意味着管理层完美无缺,总是让我感到紧张(不过,有时可能存在法律问题,使有限的讨论成为明智之举。我们生活在一个诉讼成风的社会里。)
* * * * * * * * * * * * *
现年94岁,用不了多久,格雷格·阿贝尔将接替我担任首席执行官,届时将由他撰写年度信件。格雷格认同伯克希尔的信条,即"报告"是伯克希尔首席执行官每年对所有者应尽的义务。他还明白,如果你开始愚弄你的股东,你很快就会相信自己的废话,从而也在愚弄你自己。
彼得·利格尔——独一无二
请允许我暂停一下,给您讲讲彼得·利格尔这位非凡的故事。彼得这个名字对大多数伯克希尔股东来说并不为人所知,但他为他们的总体财富贡献了数十亿美元。彼得于11月去世,享年80岁,至死仍在工作。
我第一次听说森林河公司——彼得创立并管理的印第安纳州公司——是在2005年6月21日。那天,我收到了一封中间人发来的信,详细介绍了这家公司的相关数据,这是一家休闲车("RV")制造商。写信者说,彼得是森林河公司100%的所有者,特别想卖给伯克希尔。他还告诉我彼得期望收到的价格。我喜欢这种直截了当的方式。
我向一些休闲车经销商做了一些调查,喜欢我了解到的内容,并于6月28日在奥马哈安排了会议。彼得带着他的妻子莎伦和女儿丽莎一起来。当我们见面时,彼得向我保证他想继续经营这家企业,但如果能确保家人的财务安全,他会感到更安心。
皮特接着提到,他拥有一些出租给森林河公司(Forest River)的房产,这些房产在6月21日的信中并未涉及。几分钟内,我们就这些资产的价格达成了一致,因为我表示不需要伯克希尔进行评估,而是直接接受他的估值。
然后我们来到了另一个需要澄清的问题。我问皮特他应该获得多少薪酬,并补充说无论他说什么,我都会接受。(我应该补充一句,这并不是我推荐的一般做法。)
皮特停顿了一下,他的妻子、女儿和我都向前倾身。然后他让我们惊讶不已:“嗯,我看了伯克希尔的委托书,我不想比我的老板赚得更多,所以每年给我10万美元就行了。”我从地上爬起来后,皮特补充道:“但我们今年将赚取X(他报出了一个数字),我希望获得公司目前业绩之上任何收益的10%作为年度奖金。”我回答说:“好的,皮特,但如果森林河进行任何重大收购,我们将对所使用的额外资本做出适当调整。”“适当”和“重大”这两个词我都没有定义,但这些模糊的表述从未造成问题。
然后我们四个人去奥马哈的快乐洼地俱乐部(Happy Hollow Club)共进晚餐,从此幸福地生活在一起。在接下来的19年里,皮特表现惊人,没有任何竞争对手能接近他的业绩。
* * * * * * * * * * * *
并非每家公司都拥有易于理解的业务,也很少有像皮特这样的业主或经理。当然,对于伯克希尔收购的企业,我预计会犯一些错误,有时在评估与我打交道的那种人时也会出错。
但在业务潜力和管理者的能力与忠诚度方面,我也收到了很多惊喜。我们的经验是,单一个成功的决策随着时间的推移可以产生惊人的影响。(想想GEICO这个商业决策、阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)这个管理决策,以及我幸运地找到查理·芒格作为独一无二的合作伙伴、个人顾问和忠实朋友。)错误会消逝;赢家可以永远绽放。
* * * * * * * * * * * *
关于CEO人选,我还要指出一点:我从不看候选人就读哪所学校。永远不看!
当然,有些杰出的管理者毕业于最著名的学校。但也有很多人像皮特一样,可能受益于就读不那么知名的学校,甚至干脆没有完成学业。看看我的朋友比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates),他认为在一个将改变世界的爆炸性行业中起步远比待在一张可以挂在墙上的文凭重要得多。(读他的新书《源代码》(Source Code)。)
不久前,我通过电话联系了杰西卡·图恩克尔(Jessica Toonkel),她的继祖父本·罗瑟纳(Ben Rosner)很久以前为查理和我经营一家企业。本是一个零售天才,在准备这份报告时,我向杰西卡确认了本的教育背景,我记得他受教育程度有限。杰西卡的回复是:“本从未超过六年级。”
我有幸在三所优秀的大学接受教育。而且我热忱地相信终身学习。然而,我观察到很大一部分商业才能是与生俱来的,天赋压倒培养。
皮特·利格尔(Pete Liegl)是一个天才。
去年的业绩
2024年,伯克希尔的表现好于我的预期,尽管我们189家运营企业中有53%报告收益下降。由于国库券收益率提高,我们大幅增加了这些高流动性短期证券的持仓,投资收入实现了可预见的大幅增长,这对我们有所帮助。
我们的保险业务也实现了收益的大幅增长,主要得益于GEICO(政府员工保险公司)的表现。在过去五年里,托德·库姆斯(Todd Combs)对GEICO进行了大刀阔斧的改革,提高了效率,更新了核保实践。GEICO是我们长期持有的一块宝石,需要大幅抛光,托德·库姆斯不懈努力地完成了这项工作。虽然尚未完全完成,但2024年的改进已经相当惊人。
总体而言,2024年财产险(P/C)保险定价有所走强,反映出对流风暴造成的损失大幅增加。气候变化可能正在宣告它的到来。然而,2024年并未发生"怪物级"事件。终有一天,任何一天,真正惊人的保险损失都将发生——而且无法保证每年仅发生一次。
财产险业务对伯克希尔至关重要,值得在本信后文进一步讨论。
伯克希尔的铁路和公用事业业务——我们保险业务之外的两大业务——总体收益有所提升。然而,两者都还有很多工作要做。
今年晚些时候,我们将对公用事业公司的持股比例从约92%提升至100%,总成本约为39亿美元,其中29亿美元以现金支付,其余以伯克希尔B股支付。
* * * * * * * * * * * *
总之,2024年我们录得经营收益474亿美元。我们经常——有些读者可能会抱怨说没完没了——强调这一指标,而不是第K-68页所报告的GAAP准则规定的收益。
我们的指标剔除了我们持有的股票和债券的资本收益或损失,无论是否已实现。长期来看,我们认为收益很可能占优势——否则我们为什么要购买这些证券?——尽管年度数据会大幅且不可预测地波动。我们做出这类投资承诺的期限几乎总是远远超过一年。在许多情况下,我们的投资视野长达数十年。这些长期投资有时会让现金收银机像教堂钟声一样响起。
以下是我们所看到的2023-24年收益明细。所有计算均已扣除折旧、摊销和所得税。EBITDA——华尔街钟爱的有缺陷的指标——不适合我们。
(单位:百万美元)
2024
2023
保险承保 ………………… $ 9,020 $ 5,428
保险投资收益 ……………… 13,670 9,567
BNSF铁路 …………………… 5,031 5,087
伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源 …… 3,730 2,331
其他控股业务 ……………… 13,072 13,362
非控股业务* ………………… 1,519 1,750
其他** ……………………… 1,395 (175)
经营收益 ………………… $47,437 $37,350
* 包括伯克希尔持有20%至50%股权的部分企业,如卡夫亨氏(Kraft Heinz)、西方石油(Occidental Petroleum)和Berkadia。
** 包括2024年约11亿美元和2023年约2.11亿美元的外汇收益,源于我们使用的非美元计价债务。
惊喜,惊喜!一项重要的美国纪录被打破
六十年前,现任管理层接管了伯克希尔。这是一个错误——我的错误——这个错误困扰了我们二十年。我应该强调,查理立即发现了我的明显错误:尽管我收购伯克希尔的价格看起来很便宜,但这家企业——一家大型北方纺织企业——正走向消亡。
美国财政部——这个本不该发出警告的地方——其实早已收到了关于伯克希尔命运的无声预警。1965年,该公司没有缴纳一分钱的所得税,这种尴尬的局面在该公司已持续了十年。这种经济行为对于光鲜的初创企业来说或许可以理解,但当它发生在一家备受尊敬的美国工业支柱企业身上时,就是一个警示信号。伯克希尔正走向垃圾堆。
时光快进60年,想象一下美国财政部的惊讶之情:同一家公司——仍以伯克希尔·哈撒韦的名义运营——缴纳的企业所得税远超美国政府从任何公司收到的税款——即便是那些市值达数万亿美元的美国科技巨头也望尘莫及。
准确地说,伯克希尔去年向美国国税局分四次缴纳了总计268亿美元的税款。这约占全美企业纳税总额的5%。(此外,我们还向外国政府和美国44个州缴纳了可观的所得税。)
值得注意的是,创造这一破纪录纳税额的关键因素是:在1965年至2024年期间,伯克希尔股东仅获得过一次现金分红。1967年1月3日,我们支付了这唯一的一笔款项——101,755美元,或每股A股10美分。(我已记不清为何向伯克希尔董事会建议此举。如今看来,这简直是一场噩梦。)
六十年来,伯克希尔股东支持持续再投资,这使公司得以积累应税收入。向美国财政部缴纳的现金所得税,在最初十年间微乎其微,如今累计已超过1010亿美元……而且还在增加。
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庞大的数字往往难以直观感受。让我换一种方式来呈现我们去年缴纳的268亿美元。
假设伯克希尔在2024年全年每隔20分钟就向财政部开具一张100万美元的支票——想象一下366个日夜,因为2024年是闰年——到年底我们仍会欠联邦政府一大笔钱。事实上,要到1月下旬,财政部才会告诉我们可以稍作喘息、睡个好觉,然后准备缴纳2025年的税款。
你的钱在哪里
伯克希尔的股权运作是双管齐下的。一方面,我们控制着许多企业,持有被投资企业至少80%的股份,通常是100%。这189家子公司与可流通普通股有相似之处,但并不完全相同。这些资产价值数千亿美元,其中包括一些稀世珍宝、许多不错但还算不上卓越的企业,以及一些令人失望的拖油瓶。我们没有哪种资产构成重大拖累,但我有一些本不该买入的公司。
另一方面,我们持有十几家大型高盈利企业的一小部分股权,这些企业都是家喻户晓的品牌,如苹果、美国运通、可口可乐和穆迪。许多这类公司在其运营所需的净有形股权上获得了极高的回报。截至年底,我们持有的少数股权价值2720亿美元。显而易见,真正优秀的企业很少会整体出售,但这些珍宝的一小部分可以在周一至周五的华尔街买到,而且偶尔会以特价出售。
我们在选择股权工具时一视同仁,根据哪里能最有效地部署您(和我家族)的储蓄来决定投资哪种。通常,没有什么特别诱人的机会;偶尔我们会发现机会纷至沓来。格雷格已鲜明地展现出他在这种时刻的行动能力,查理亦是如此。
对于可交易的股票,当我犯错时更容易改变方向。必须强调的是,伯克希尔目前的规模限制了这一宝贵选项。我们无法做到快进快出。有时需要一年甚至更长时间来建立或出售一项投资。此外,对于少数股权,即使需要更换管理层或对资本配置决策不满意,我们也无力改变。
对于控股公司,我们可以决定这些决策,但在处理错误时灵活性就差得多。实际上,伯克希尔几乎从不出售控股企业,除非我们面临认为无休止的问题。抵消这一劣势的是,一些企业主因为我们的坚定行为而主动找上门来。偶尔,这对我们来说是一个明显的优势。
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尽管一些评论员认为伯克希尔目前的现金头寸巨大,但你们的大部分资金仍然配置在股票上。这种偏好不会改变。虽然我们去年可交易股票的所有权从3540亿美元下降到2720亿美元,但我们非上市控股股权的价值有所增加,且仍然远远大于可交易投资组合的价值。
伯克希尔股东可以放心,我们将永远把他们的资金大部分配置在股票上——主要是美国股票,尽管其中许多公司有重要的国际业务。伯克希尔永远不会偏好持有现金等价物资产而非好企业的所有权,无论是控股还是部分持股。
如果财政胡来盛行,纸币的价值可能会蒸发。在某些国家,这种不计后果的做法已成惯例,而在我国短暂的历史中,美国也曾濒临边缘。固定票息债券无法提供对货币失控的保护。
然而,只要其商品或服务是国民所需要的,企业以及拥有所需才能的个人通常都能找到应对货币不稳定的方法。个人技能也是如此。缺乏运动天赋、美妙的嗓音、医疗或法律技能,或者就此而言任何特殊才能,我一生都只能依靠股票。实际上,我依赖美国企业的成功,今后将继续如此。
* * * * * * * * * * * *
无论怎样,公民明智地——更好地说创造性地——配置储蓄,对于推动社会产出日益增长的所需商品和服务是必要的。这个体系叫做资本主义。它有其缺陷和滥用——在某些方面现在比以往任何时候都更严重——但它也能创造其他经济体系无法比拟的奇迹。
美国就是典型案例。我国在仅235年的存在历程中取得的进步,即使是1789年宪法通过时最乐观的殖民者也难以想象,当时这个国家的能量得到了释放。
诚然,我国在早期有时向国外借款以补充自身的储蓄。但与此同时,我们需要许多美国人持续储蓄,需要这些储蓄者或其他美国人明智地配置由此提供的资本。如果美国消费了所有生产的东西,这个国家就会原地踏步。
美国的发展过程并不总是光鲜的——我国永远有许多恶棍和推销员,试图利用那些错误地信任他们的人来攫取储蓄。但尽管存在这种欺诈行为——至今仍然盛行——以及许多最终因残酷竞争或颠覆性创新而失败的资本配置,美国人的储蓄所创造的产出数量和质量,仍超出了任何殖民者的梦想。
从仅有四百万人口的基础起步——尽管早期经历了残酷的内战,导致美国人自相残杀——美国在弹指之间改变了世界。
伯克希尔的股东们以非常微小的方式参与了美国奇迹,他们放弃股息,选择再投资而非消费。最初,这种再投资规模很小,几乎微不足道,但随着时间的推移,它迅速增长,反映了持续储蓄文化与长期复利魔力的结合。
伯克希尔的业务如今影响着我们国家的每个角落。而我们尚未止步。企业因诸多原因消亡,但与人类不同,年老本身并不会致命。今天的伯克希尔远比1965年更加年轻。
然而,正如查理和我一直承认的,伯克希尔若不在美国,不可能有今天的成就;而美国即使从未有伯克希尔,也同样会取得如今的成功。
所以谢谢你,山姆大叔。伯克希尔的晚辈们希望有一天能向你支付比2024年更大的款项。明智地花掉它。照顾那些并非因为自身过错而在生活中抽到下下签的人。他们理应得到更好的结果。永远不要忘记,我们需要你保持货币稳定,而这需要你的智慧和警醒。
财产意外险
财产意外险继续是伯克希尔的核心业务。该行业遵循一种在大型企业中极为罕见的财务模式——非常罕见。
通常,企业在销售产品或服务之前或同时会产生劳动力、材料、库存、厂房和设备等成本。因此,首席执行官们在出售产品之前就能很好地掌握产品成本。如果售价低于成本,管理者很快就会意识到出了问题。现金流失很难被忽视。
承保财产意外险时,我们先收取保费,很久以后才能知道我们的产品成本如何——有时这个真相时刻会延迟30年甚至更久。(我们仍在为50多年前发生的石棉暴露事件支付大额赔款。)
这种运营模式有一个可取之处:财产意外险公司在发生大部分费用之前就能获得现金。但它也带来风险——在首席执行官和董事意识到之前,公司可能已经在亏损——有时是巨额亏损。
某些险种可以最大限度地减少这种时间错配,比如农作物保险或冰雹灾害保险,损失可以很快报告、评估和赔付。然而,其他险种却可能让管理层和股东在公司破产时仍蒙在鼓里。想想医疗事故险或产品责任险这类业务。在“长尾”业务中,财产意外险公司可能连续多年甚至数十年向所有者和监管机构报告虚假的大额利润。如果首席执行官是个乐观主义者或骗子,会计处理尤其危险。这些可能性并非异想天开:历史上这两类人都屡见不鲜。
近几十年来,这种“先收钱、后付赔款”的模式让伯克希尔能够投资大额资金(即“浮存金”),同时通常还能实现我们认为的小额承保利润。我们为“意外”做估计,到目前为止,这些估计是充分的。
我们不会被业务中日益增长的巨额赔款所吓倒。(写这封信时,我想到了野火灾难。)我们的职责是定价以吸收这些损失,在意外发生时冷静地承受损失。我们的职责还包括对抗“失控”的判决、恶意诉讼和彻底的欺诈行为。
在阿吉特的领导下,我们的保险业务从一家默默无闻的奥马哈公司成长为世界领军企业,因其对风险的偏好和如 Gibraltar 般坚如磐石的财务实力而闻名。此外,格雷格、我们的董事们和我自己在伯克希尔的投资规模相对于我们收到的任何薪酬都相当可观。我们不使用期权或其他单边形式的薪酬;如果你亏钱,我们也亏钱。这种方式鼓励谨慎,但并不能保证有先见之明。
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财产意外险的增长依赖于经济风险的增加。没有风险——就没有保险的需求。
仅仅回溯135年前,那时世界上还没有汽车、卡车或飞机。如今仅美国就有3亿辆汽车,这是一个庞大的车队,每天造成巨大的损失。飓风、龙卷风和野火造成的财产损失是巨大的、不断增长的,而且其模式和最终成本越来越难以预测。
为这些保险业务签发十年期的保单是愚蠢的——可以说是疯狂——但我们相信,对这类风险承担一年期的责任通常是可控的。如果我们改变主意,会改变我们提供的保单。在我的一生中,汽车保险公司通常放弃了一年期保单,转向六个月期的品种。这种变化减少了浮存金,但允许更明智的承保。
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没有一家私人保险公司像伯克希尔这样愿意承担如此大量的风险。有时,这种优势很重要。但当价格不足时,我们也需要收缩。我们绝不能为了留在游戏中而签发定价不足的保单。那种做法是公司的自杀。
正确地定价财产意外险部分是艺术,部分是科学,绝对不是乐观者的生意。招募阿吉特的伯克希尔高管迈克·戈德堡说得最好:“我们希望我们的承保人每天来上班时感到紧张,但不至于瘫痪。”
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综合来看,我们喜欢财产意外险业务。伯克希尔能够在财务和心理上从容应对极端损失。我们也不依赖再保险公司,这给了我们一个实质性且持久的成本优势。最后,我们有杰出的管理者(不是乐观者),并且特别善于利用财产意外险提供的巨额资金进行投资。
在过去二十年里,我们的保险业务从承保中产生了320亿美元的税后利润,相当于每美元销售额在所得税后约3.3美分。与此同时,我们的浮存金从460亿美元增长到171亿美元。浮存金可能会随着时间略有增长,而且凭借明智的承保(再加上一些运气),有合理的可能性实现零成本。
伯克希尔增加对日投资
我们以美国为重点的一个小但重要的例外是我们对日本日益增长的投资。
距伯克希尔开始购买五家日本公司的股票已近六年,这些公司的经营方式与伯克希尔本身颇为相似。这五家公司依次是(按字母顺序)伊藤忠、丸红、三菱、三井和住友。每个这些大型企业反过来都拥有众多业务的权益,许多以日本为基地,但也有一些在世界各地运营。
伯克希尔在2019年7月首次购买这五家公司的股票。我们只是查看了他们的财务记录,对其股票价格之低感到惊讶。随着岁月流逝,我们对这些公司的敬意持续增长。格雷格多次与他们会面,我则定期关注他们的进展。我们都喜欢他们的资本配置、他们的管理层以及他们对待投资者的态度。
Berkshire made its first purchases involving the five in July 2019. We simply looked at
their financial records and were amazed at the low prices of their stocks. As the years have
passed, our admiration for these companies has consistently grown. Greg has met many times
with them, and I regularly follow their progress. Both of us like their capital deployment, their
managements and their attitude in respect to their investors.
这五家公司都会在适当时候提高股息,在合理时机回购股票,而且它们的高管薪酬方案远比美国的同类公司更为克制。
我们持有这五家公司的股票都是长期投资,并致力于支持它们的董事会。从一开始我们就约定,伯克希尔在每家公司的持股比例保持在10%以下。但当我们接近这一上限时,这五家公司同意适度放宽上限。随着时间推移,你们可能会看到伯克希尔对这五家公司的持股比例有所增加。
到年底,伯克希尔的总成本(以美元计)为138亿美元,我们持有的市值为235亿美元。
与此同时,伯克希尔持续增加日元计价借款,但并非依据任何公式。全部为固定利率,没有浮动利率借款。我和格雷格对未来的外汇汇率没有看法,因此寻求接近货币中立的仓位。然而,根据GAAP会计准则,我们需要定期在收益中确认我们所借日元的损益计算,到年底已确认因美元强势而产生的23亿美元税后收益,其中8.5亿美元发生在2024年。
我预计格雷格及其最终继任者将持有这些日本资产数十年,未来伯克希尔也将寻找其他方式与这五家公司开展富有成效的合作。
我们也很喜欢目前日元平衡策略的算术账。在我写这封信时,预计2025年日本投资的年度股息收入约为8.12亿美元,日元计价债务的利息成本约为1.35亿美元。
奥马哈年度股东大会
我希望你们能参加5月3日在奥马哈举行的会议。今年的日程安排略有调整,但基本安排保持不变。我们的目标是让你们许多问题得到解答,让你们与朋友建立联系,并让你们带着对奥马哈的良好印象离开。这座城市期待着你们的到访。
我们将组织志愿者团队为您提供琳琅满目的伯克希尔产品,让您的钱包变空,心情变好。和往常一样,周五中午12点至下午5点,我们将推出可爱的毛绒玩具、浪奇内衣、布鲁克斯跑鞋以及众多其他令人心动的商品。
今年我们仍将只销售一本书。去年我们推出了《穷查理宝典》,5000册在周六打烊前就已售罄。
今年我们将推出《伯克希尔·哈撒韦60年》。2015年,我请卡丽·索瓦(她身兼多职,其中负责管理股东大会的许多活动)尝试编写一本轻松的伯克希尔历史。我给了她充分的创作自由,她很快完成了一本书,其创意、内容和设计都令我惊叹不已。
随后,卡丽离开伯克希尔去组建家庭,现在有了三个孩子。但每年夏天,伯克希尔的员工都会聚在一起观看奥马哈风暴追逐者队与Triple-A级别对手的棒球比赛。我会邀请几位老同事参加,卡丽通常会和家人一起来。在今年的活动中,我冒昧地问她是否愿意做一本60周年纪念版,收录一些从未公开过的查理的照片、语录和故事。
尽管要照顾三个年幼的孩子,卡丽立即答应了。因此,我们将在周五下午和周六上午7点至下午4点提供5000本新书供销售。
凯莉为新版“查理”专辑做了大量工作,我提议她和我共同签名20本,赠予向斯蒂芬中心(South Omaha为无家可归的成人和儿童提供服务的机构)捐赠5,000美元的股东。凯莉的祖父比尔·凯泽(Bill Kizer Sr.)是我的老朋友,凯莉则是我多年的合作伙伴。几十年来,凯泽家族一直帮助这个值得支持的机构。无论这20本签名书售得多少款项,我都会等额匹配。
贝基·奎克(Beckey Quick)将主持我们稍作调整后的大会。贝基对伯克希尔了如指掌,总是安排与经理、投资者、股东以及偶尔的名人进行有趣的采访。她和CNBC团队在向全球转播我们的会议以及存档大量伯克希尔相关资料方面做得非常出色。我们的导演史蒂夫·伯克(Steve Burke)提出了这个存档的想法,值得称赞。
今年我们不放电影,而是将会议提前到上午8点开始。我将做几句开场致辞,然后立即进入问答环节,问题将在贝基和现场观众之间交替进行。
格雷格和阿吉特将和我一起回答问题,上午10:30我们将休息半小时。上午11:00复会时,只有格雷格将和我一起在台上。今年我们将在下午1点散会,但展览区将持续开放购物至下午4点。
您可以在第16页找到周末活动的完整详情。请特别注意周日早上广受欢迎的布鲁克斯跑步活动。(我会在睡觉。)
我去年写过的聪明漂亮的姐姐伯蒂( Bertie)将出席大会,她的两个女儿也会一同前往,她们同样漂亮。观察者们一致认为,产生这一惊人结果的基因只从家族的女性一脉传承下来。(叹气。)
伯蒂现在91岁了,我们每周日用老式电话聊天。我们聊着衰老的乐趣,讨论诸如我们各自拐杖的优劣之类令人兴奋的话题。就我而言,拐杖的用处仅限于避免脸朝地摔倒。
但伯蒂总是胜我一筹,她声称自己享有一个额外的好处:当女人使用拐杖时,男人们就不会再“搭讪”她了。伯蒂的解释是,男性的自尊心使得他们认为,拄着拐杖的老太太不是合适的目标。目前,我没有数据来反驳她的说法。
但我有所怀疑。在大会上我从台上看不太清楚,如果与会者能帮我留意伯蒂,我将不胜感激。请告诉我拐杖是否真的在发挥作用。我打赌她会被男士们包围。对于某些年龄段的人来说,这一场景会让人想起《飘》中斯嘉丽·奥哈拉和她的一大群男性仰慕者。
伯克希尔的董事们和我都非常期待您来到奥马哈,我预测您会玩得很开心,并可能结交一些新朋友。
2025年2月22日 沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事长
伯克希尔业绩与标普500指数对比
年度百分比变化
伯克希尔每股市值变化
标普500指数(含股息)
1965年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49.5% 10.0%
1966年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (3.4)% (11.7)%
1967年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.3% 30.9%
1968年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77.8% 11.0%
1969年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.4% (8.4)%
1970 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.6%
3.9%
1971 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
80.5%
14.6%
1972 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8.1%
18.9%
1973 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(2.5%)
(14.8%)
1974 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(48.7%)
(26.4%)
1975 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.5%
37.2%
1976 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
129.3%
23.6%
1977 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
46.8%
(7.4%)
1978 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.5%
6.4%
1979 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
102.5%
18.2%
1980 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
32.8%
32.3%
1981 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
31.8%
(5.0%)
1982 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
38.4%
21.4%
1983 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
69.0%
22.4%
1984 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(2.7%)
6.1%
1985 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
93.7%
31.6%
1986 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.2%
18.6%
1987 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.6%
5.1%
1988 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
59.3%
16.6%
1989 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
84.6%
31.7%
1990 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(23.1%)
(3.1%)
1991 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
35.6%
30.5%
1992 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
29.8%
7.6%
1993 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
38.9%
10.1%
1994 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25.0%
1.3%
注:数据为日历年度,但以下年份除外:1965 年和 1966 年为截至 9/30 的年度;1967 年为截至 12/31 的 15 个月。
伯克希尔与标普 500 表现对比
年度百分比变化
伯克希尔每股市场价值
标普 500(含股息)
1995 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
57.4%
37.6%
1996 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.2%
23.0%
1997 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
34.9%
33.4%
1998 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
52.2%
28.6%
1999 年 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
(19.9%)
21.0%
2000年
26.6%
(9.1%)
2001年
6.5%
(11.9%)
2002年
(3.8%)
(22.1%)
2003年
15.8%
28.7%
2004年
4.3%
10.9%
2005年
0.8%
4.9%
2006年24.1%
15.8%
2007年
28.7%
5.5%
2008年
(31.8%)
(37.0%)
2009年
2.7%
26.5%
2010年
21.4%
15.1%
2011年
(4.7%)
2.1%
2012年
16.8%
16.0%
2013年
32.7%
32.4%
2014年
27.0%
13.7%
2015年
(12.5%)
1.4%
2016年
23.4%
12.0%
2017年
21.9%
21.8%
2018年
2.8%
(4.4%)
2019年
11.0%
31.5%
2020年
2.4%
18.4%
2021年
29.6%
28.7%
2022年
4.0%
(18.1%)
2023年
15.8%
26.3%
2024年
25.5%
25.0%
复合年化收益——1965年至2024年
19.9%
10.4%
总体收益——1964年至2024年
5,502,284%
39,054%